BCREA ECONOMICS NOW

Canadian Housing Starts – August 9, 2017

Canadian housing starts increased 4 per cent in July to 222,324 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).  The six-month trend in Canadian housing starts was also higher at217,550 units SAAR.

New home construction in BC was one of the main contributors to the overall increase in Canadian housing starts. Total housing starts in BC increased 20 per cent on a monthly basis to 45,597 units SAAR and were up 19 per cent on a year-over-year basis.  Single detached starts fell 3 per cent month-over-month and were 1 per cent lower year-over-year. Multiple unit starts rose close to 30 per cent on both a monthly and year-over-year basis.

Looking at census metropolitan areas (CMA) in BC:

• Total starts in the Vancouver CMA bounced back from a decline in June, rising 13 per cent year-over-year in July. The increase was primarily due to an 18 per cent jump in multiple unit starts, with most new construction activity taking place around Burnaby, Coquitlam and New Westminster.
• In the Victoria CMA market, housing starts more than doubled year-over-year due to a more than 300 per cent increase in multiple unit starts. This represents a much needed boost to the supply of housing in Victoria over the medium term but will do little to address current low inventory levels.

• New home construction in the Kelowna CMA was down 34 per cent year-over-year and declined 41 per cent on a monthly basis. The decline was likely the result of relative inactivity due to wildfires.
• Housing starts in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA more than doubled for the second consecutive month as developers broke ground on 157 new multiple unit starts.

BCREA ECONOMICS NOW

Canadian Monthly Real GDP Growth (May) – July 28, 2017

The Canadian economy posted blockbuster growth in May, expanding 0.6 per cent on a monthly basis and 4.6 per cent year-over-year.  This was the seventh consecutive month of positive growth for the Canadian economy. Moreover, growth was broad based with output increasing in 14 of 20 industrial sectors.  Given the first two months of GDP data, the Canadian economy is on track to post a second consecutive quarter of growth close to 4 per cent.

Strong economic growth further solidifies the Bank of Canada’s case for raising interest rates one more time this year, likely at its October meeting. However, the path of interest rates beyond that rests heavily on the evolution of Canadian inflation, which has been trending well below the Bank’s 2 per cent target. 

A further sign of momentum in the Canadian economy this morning as Canadian manufacturing sales increased 1.1 per cent in May, the third consecutive monthly increase.  Overall, sales were higher in 16 of 21 manufacturing sub-sectors, reflecting broad-based strength in the Canadian economy.  Continued strong economic data will likely push the Bank of Canada closer to a second rate increase this fall.
 
In BC, manufacturing sales increased 1.8 per cent on a monthly basis and were up 8.2 per cent year-over-year. A strong manufacturing and trade sector has been a key contributor to economic growth in the province this year, which is on track to record a fourth consecutive year of 3 per cent or more growth in real GDP, the best performance for the provincial economy since 2007. 

BCREA ECONOMICS NOW

Canadian Housing Starts – July 11, 2017

Canadian housing starts increased 9 per cent in June to 212,695 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).  The six-month trend in Canadian housing starts continues to trend higher at about 215,459 units SAAR, the highest level in almost five years.

In BC, total housing starts declined 19 per cent on a monthly basis to a still robust 37,279 units SAAR and were down 22 per cent on a year-over-year basis.  Single detached starts fell 2 per cent month-over-month but were 14 per cent higher year-over-year. Multiple unit starts fell 24 per cent month-over-month and were down 31 per cent year-over-year.

Looking at census metropolitan areas (CMA) in BC:

• Total starts in the Vancouver CMA were actually down 34 per cent year-over-year with a 2 per cent decline posted in single units starts and a 40 per cent drop in multiple units starts compared to last year. The record level of units currently under construction is likely putting downward pressure on new starts as the industry is close to capacity.
• In the Victoria CMA market, housing starts declined 42 per cent year-over-year with multiple unit starts at only half the level of June 2016. Single unit starts increased 5 per cent.

• New home construction in the Kelowna CMA was up 80 per cent year-over-year but fell by half on a monthly basis compared to a big increase in new home construction in May.
• Housing starts in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA more than doubled on a both a monthly and year-over-year basis due to more than 230 new multiple units starts in June.

Land: There were a record 1,177 commercial land sales in 2016, which is a 41 per cent increase from the 835 land sales in 2015. The dollar value of last year’s land sales was $7.202 billion, an 81.3 per cent increase over $3.973 billion in 2015.

Office and Retail: There were a record 918 office and retail sales in the Lower Mainland in 2016, which is up 12.8 per cent from the 814 sales in 2015. The dollar value of last year’s office and retail sales was $3.621 billion, a 46.9 per cent increase over $2.466 billion in 2015.

Industrial: There were 612 industrial land sales in the Lower Mainland in 2016, which is up 9.9 per cent over the 557 sales in 2015. The dollar value of last year’s industrial sales was $1.067 billion, a 3.4 per cent increase over $1.032 billion in 2015.

Multi-Family: There were 141 multi-family land sales in the Lower Mainland in 2016, which is down 4.1 per cent over the 147 sales in 2015. The dollar value of last year’s multi-family sales was $1.100 billion, an 18.2 per cent decrease from $1.345 billion in 2015.

Vancouver, BC – February 28, 2016. The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) increased for the fourth consecutive quarter, rising 1.5 index points from the third to fourth quarter. The index now sits at 123.9, a 5 per cent increase from a year ago, and about a 1.2 per cent gain on a quarterly basis.

“The CLI was propelled higher by strong fourth quarter growth in the BC economy,” says BCREA Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “The strength of the underlying BC economy, particularly relative to the rest of Canada, makes BC a very attractive destination for commercial investment.”

Five straight quarters of rising BC manufacturing sales and a second consecutive year of more than 6 per cent growth in retail sales has driven the CLI to new heights this year. The underlying CLI trend, which smooths often noisy economic data, continues to push higher due to several quarters of strong economic statistics. That uptrend signals further growth in investment, leasing and other commercial real estate activity over the next two to four quarters.

BCREA 2017 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2017 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 14.1 per cent to 96,345 units this year, after reaching a record 112,209 units in 2016. A moderation trend that began early in 2016, combined with tougher federal government mortgage qualification rules and the foreign buyer tax in Vancouver, is expected to limit consumer demand over the next two years. However, housing demand is expected to remain well above the ten-year average of 84,700 unit sales.

“Solid fundamentals continue to underpin housing demand in the province,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “International trade, population growth and consumer confidence will be key economic drivers this year.” Of note, net migration to the province exceeded 50,000 individuals during the first three quarters of 2016, the highest level since 2008 and a 50 per cent increase from the previous year.

Canadian manufacturing sales finished the year on a high note, rising 2.3 per cent in December and matching the strong sales growth in November. However, strength in shipments was not broad based with sales higher in only 8 of 21 manufacturing sub-sectors.

In BC, where the manufacturing sector is a significant employer and a key driver of economic growth, sales decreased 1.5 per cent on a monthly basis but were 7.6 per cent higher year-over-year. While sales dipped slightly from a very strong November, the manufacturing sector remained a bright spot for the province in the second half of the year, posting nearly 8 per cent growth since the summer. That upswing has been a particularly important driver of growth and housing demand in BC’s manufacturing regions.

Home sales and listings trends are below long-term averages in the Metro Vancouver* housing market. This is due largely to reduced activity in the detached home market.

Residential property sales in the region totalled 1,523 in January 2017, a 39.5 per cent decrease from the 2,519 sales recorded in January 2016 and an 11.1 per cent decrease compared to December 2016 when 1,714 homes sold.

Last month’s sales were 10.3 per cent below our 10-year January sales average.

“From a real estate perspective, it’s a lukewarm start to the year compared to 2016,” Dan Morrison, Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) president said. “While we saw near record-breaking sales at this time last year, home buyers and sellers are more reluctant to engage so far in 2017.”

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Metro Vancouver totalled 4,140 in January 2017. This represents a 6.8 per cent decrease compared to the 4,442 homes listed in January 2016 and a 215.5 per cent increase compared to December 2016 when 1,312 properties were listed.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver is 7,238, a 9.1 per cent increase compared to January 2016 (6,635) and a 14.1 per cent increase compared to December 2016 (6,345).

The sales-to-active listings ratio for January 2017 is 21 per cent. This is the lowest the ratio has been in the region since January 2015. Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12 per cent mark for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“Conditions within the market vary depending on property type. The townhome and condominium markets are more active than the detached market at the moment,” Morrison said. “As a result, detached home prices declined about 7 per cent since peaking in July while townhome and condominium prices held steady over this period.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $896,000. This represents a 3.7 per cent decline over the past six months and a 0.2 per cent decrease compared to December 2016.

Sales of detached properties in January 2017 reached 444, a decrease of 57.6 per cent from the 1,047 detached sales recorded in January 2016. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,474,800. This represents a 6.6 per cent decline over the last six months and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to December 2016.

Sales of apartment properties reached 825 in January 2017, a decrease of 24.7 per cent compared to the 1,096 sales in January 2016.The benchmark price of an apartment property is $512,300. This represents a 0.3 per cent increase over the last six months and a 0.4 per cent increase compared to December 2016.

Attached property sales in January 2017 totalled 254, a decrease of 32.4 per cent compared to the 376 sales in January 2016. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $666,500. This represents a 0.4 per cent decline over the last six months and a 0.7 per cent increase compared to December 2016.

BCREA ECONOMICS NOW

Canadian Building Permits – January 10, 2017

The total value of Canadian building permits decreased 0.1 per cent from October to November, largely as a result of lower permit activity in Alberta. Residential construction intentions were down 1.6 per cent across Canada, while non-residential permits rose 3 per cent.  

In BC, the total value of permits rose close to 15 per cent on a monthly basis and 9.5 per cent year-over-year. Residential permits reached their highest level in close to a year with more than $1 billion in total permit values, an increase of  21 per cent from October and 21 per cent year-over-year. Non-residential permits, however, fell 5 per cent on a monthly basis and 20.6 per cent year-over-year.

Construction intentions were mixed across BC’s four census metropolitan areas (CMA). Permits in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA fell by nearly half from October to November and were down 35 per cent year-over-year while the Vancouver CMA saw a 31 per cent increase on a monthly basis and an 11 per cent increase year-over-year. In the Kelowna CMA, permits rose 3 per cent on a monthly basis and 17 per cent year-over-year.  In Victoria, construction intentions dipped 13.4 per cent on a monthly basis, and were about 7 per cent lower than in November 2015.